What May happen in 2019 and with Brexit in the short term.

Brexit and politics of the United Kingdom within the next year

The following points and ideas are what I think what would most likely occur within the next year. I will firstly begin introducing what is Brexit and why we voted to leave the European Union, then I will discuss what is likely to occur at the writing on this essay in early October 2018.

Brexit is short for the British exit of the European Union.  It is the idea that Britain could leave the European Union and bring back many of the powers that have been acquired by the European Union since the United Kingdom had joined the EEC in 1973. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland voted to leave the European Union on the 23^rd June 2016. 2016 was a hectic year for the western establishment, the year the establishment failed to get their own way on both sides of the pond. It was a clear backlash against the Neo-Liberal economics which was set up in the 1980’s that replaced the new deal style economics in the western world. Many economists call this either supply-side economics and its critics trickle-down economics.  The name of this does not matter. What matters is that this economic position has failed the majority of people in the west. Many people were left behind for decades the same people left behind lashed out at the establishment that told them that everything will be worse when themselves were the real reason for the anger against the establishment. For this very reason it those in power want to remain in place, the elite must adapt and recognise the ills of the working class. In a divided country there must be a mechanism to unify the nation and to pick up the pieces created by the economic incompetence of the political class. We need to build a society that is not about dog eats dog but a society where everyone cares about each other.

 The current negotiations with the European Union could not be handled any worse than it currently is. In power we have a clueless and directionless party who put their own personal interests and their careers first. The Conservative Party lacks new ideas and different methods to solve and address the issues of the time. They lack imagination and the Conservative Party fails to look outside the box on these issues. The question of Europe has always been the Achilles heel of the Conservative Party, well certainly at least the Post Thatcher years. The 2005 Conservative Party leadership election was thought on the issue of Europe between David Cameron and David Davis. These divisions became so extreme that 2 Conservative MPs Mark Reckless (it’s in the name) and Douglas Carswell defected to UKIP. The fear of more defections to UKIP led to the promise of a referendum by the Conservative leader David Cameron after the 2015 general election. This referendum was called in 2017, it brought out the ancient divisions in the Conservative Party into the public sphere. It led to one of the most toxic debates in history. Furthermore, it brought out career interests in certain Conservative MP's, this was the case with Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. The Question is why is this relevant? It’s quite simple, the future of Brexit and the future of the Conservative Party. The idea that I am advocating is that the issue of Europe will finally bring down the so-called "unified unit" of the Conservative Party. I would argue that these divisions, contributed to the confusion to what it’s the ideological direction and the plan for the future for the Conservative Party. I think this sensation resonates with Conservative supporters, I constantly hear many Tory voters that say that the Conservative Party is no longer Conservative. Theresa May when she became the Conservative leader emulated Ed Miliband in her first speech as Prime Minister. Though this was a clear attack on Labour at the time. This is important to think about to determine what is going to happen with the future with Brexit.

At the time of writing this, the United Kingdom has entered a place of uncertainty. Theresa May’s Brexit plans have been rejected by the European Union. The Chequers proposal was supposed to be the way to leave the European Union and supposedly honouring the vote without impeding the economy. This proposal was hated by both sides of the divide on Brexit. Chequers was proposed on the 6^th July 2018 after 18 months of little progress in the Brexit negotiations. Except for the so-called divorce bill at £39 billion though this figure is likely to rise. In September 2018 Theresa May met with Michel Barnier in Salzburg in Austria the EU flat out disagreed with the Chequers proposals. Prompting Theresa May to discuss the potential of a No deal. With this period of uncertainty, the purpose of the following discussions is to talk about what is likely going to happen with Brexit.

The main part of the discussion is the leadership of the Conservative Party. Since the 2017 election people have discussed when is May is going to leave office. Who will challenge Theresa May and who is going to be her successor. Moreover, despite threats to oust Theresa May for the last year she remains in power.  There have been a handful of potential successors that have been an important part of the political discourse. We have Jacob Rees Mogg who has been discussed for the last year, however, he his firmly behind Boris Johnson. We have Boris Johnson who has manoeuvred himself to become the Conservative leader since the EU referendum, especially since he resigned from his position as Foreign Secretary. Boris Johnson is the most likely successor to Theresa May. There are also a few more possible candidates such as Sajid Javid, David Davis and Andrea Leadsom. Since becoming the Home Secretary after Amber Rudd resigned due to the Windrush scandal Sajid Javid has been posed to become the next Conservative leader. The issue with this is the majority of the Conservative membership are mainly Brexiters and internal polls suggest vast levels of support for Boris Johnson.

Another question we need to look it is the departure of Theresa May. Her track record suggests that she will remain Prime Minister. Most key votes in Parliament despite threats of rebellions go in the Governments favour.  Most possible leadership contenders such as Boris Johnson prove time and time again to be spineless when trying to oust May or undermine her leadership. Theresa May is one of the worst Prime Ministers we have had in modern history but at least she knows how to stay in power. The likely hood of Theresa May being ousted is low. I think most Conservative MP’s despite what happens with Brexit do not want to cause the Government to collapse and risk another general election where they are bound to lose. I think Theresa May will stay in power until early April where she will resign though her own free will after we are currently due to leave the European Union.

After examining the membership of the Conservative Party, it is certain that a Brexiter will become Prime Minister. Internal polls within the Conservative Party show support for Boris Johnson to become the leader of the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson is the most likely candidate to become Prime Minister. A leadership election in 2019 would not be as quick and divisive as the last one as of the candidates stepped down in favour of Theresa May. Instead of taking less than a month to conclude the next Conservative leadership election would be a longer process and the final vote will likely go to the membership and it will be a longer process. I think Sajid Javid, Dominic Rabb, Boris Johnson, David Davis, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt will show interest in leadership. Jacob Rees Mogg would be firmly behind Boris Johnson, Mogg would likely have a cabinet position promised to him. The final two candidates would either Boris Johnson and Sajid Javid, Boris Johnson and Dominic Rabb, Boris Johnson and David Davis. I think Boris Johnson will become Prime Minister in late spring/ early summer 2019.

The likely key cabinet positions under Prime Minister Boris Johnson is as follows.

Prime Minister- Boris Johnson

Chancellor of the Exchequer- David Davis

Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs- Jacob Rees Mogg

Secretary of State for the Home Department- Andrea Leadsom

Secretary of State for Health and Social Care- Matt Hancock

Secretary of State of Work and Pension- Esther McVey

Secretary of State for Transport- Ian Duncan Smith

Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs- Michael Gove
Secretary of State for International Trade- John Redwood

The most important predictions we must look at is the likely Brexit deal. Let’s make this clear there will not be a no deal Brexit, there is no majority in Parliament for it. EEA membership is out of the question as it requires for the UK to join the Schengen Area. EFTA is a more likely soft Brexit option as the UK is a founding member and it does not require the UK to join Schengen. However, I think the recent rhetoric from Theresa May suggests we will not get a deal like EFTA. My prediction with a more of a Canadian style deal with a new Customs Union or Chequers with a Customs Union to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland. At the time of writing this Theresa May has suggested we could remain in a Customs Union post-Brexit. This would be negotiated at the last minute in an attempt to prevent a No deal Brexit or a second referendum. This would most likely be just before Christmas like the divorce bill agreement in 2017. I see both the UK and the European Union both compromising on key issues at the last minute. I think the EU would be under a lot of pressure from Germany and the car industry to gain a meaningful deal.

Another issue we need to put to bed is the idea of a new general election. There has been endless speculation of another general election after the result of the 2017 general election. The idea of an early general election has resurfaced after the Chequers proposal and after the Chequers proposal was rejected by the European Union. It never occurred. The Conservative and DUP MP’s may have their differences on subjects such as Brexit however, they do not want to risk another general election and the placement of Jeremy Corbyn in 10 Downing Street. We can prove that this will happen from the track record in votes in parliament where the Government has managed to defeat the opposition in key votes in parliament even when there was an expectation for a major Conservative Rebellion. The Labour Party is going to aim to trigger a general election at all costs, I think this will fail. As the Peoples Vote motion mandates, Labour will also attempt to trigger a Peoples Vote, unless we get a No Deal, which I stated above is incredibly unlikely. The Conservatives will be able to push their Brexit deal through Parliament through the skin of its teeth. The next general election will likely occur in autumn 2019 after the summer recess and the end of the DUP deal and after a Conservative leadership election.

In this section, I will discuss the internal politics of the main Parties except for Conservatives as I discussed the Conservative leadership above. The SNP will likely have a change in leadership in 2019 due to an increase of dissatisfaction towards Nicola Sturgeon. The SNP are increasingly split between the prospect of an Indyref2 and divisions between pro-Alex Salmond and Sturgeon factions in the Party. There is also a growing split in the SNP on Brexit on the SNP’s policy towards it and on the Question of what will be the relationship between the EU and an independent Scotland? The popularity of the SNP will go into decline in favour of Labour and the Liberal Democrats. As well as Theresa May, Vince Cable will stand down in April 2019 as the leader of the Liberal Democrats, he has already announced he would resign after Brexit is either resolved or stopped. He would likely be replaced by Jo Swinson or Layla Moran. In term of popularity, I think the popularity of the Liberal Democrats will go into decline after Brexit in favour of Labour and the Conservatives. Jeremy Corbyn will strengthen his leadership in the Labour Party. Labour popularity will only increase in the next year after more Tory failures become highlighted in the media. In the 2017 general election, Labour did well directing the debate away from Brexit. Without the toxicity of Brexit Labour will excel in the polls. Discussion in Labour will be directed in new ideas such as abolishing the Monarchy and the idea of leaving NATO will come up. Open reselection will be passed in the 2019 Labour conference just prior to the 2019 election. The moderates in Labour will accept Labours new position like the left did with Blair many of them will give up in undermining Corbyn. Many of the deselected and dissatisfied moderates will leave Labour but this will not affect it electorally instead they will attract the moderate Conservative vote. A new centrist Party will emerge, backed by figures like Alistair Campbell and David Miliband, they will bring forth the idea of coming back into the European Union. I think this will draw key supporters from Labour, Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. I can see many of the social democrat types in the Liberal Democrats move to this new Party in the long term I can see an emergence of the old Liberal Party values within the Liberal Democrats. The new Party will be modelled on Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche. This new Party has a chance of winning a few cities however I can’t see it gaining more than 8% of the vote.

This section will briefly suggest what is likely to occur with our economy when we leave the European Union and what will be the policies that the Government would enact as a response.  There will be a temporary crash in the value of the Pound Sterling in early 2019. The Pound Sterling will increase in value as long as there is certainty, I will have a temporary surge in summer 2019 until the 2019 general election. The election of a Labour Government would lead to the Pound Sterling to crash again in value. Imports will become more expensive between the UK and the EU after the UK takes its seat on the World Trade Organisation we will aim to unilaterally lower tariffs on food imports to make up for the shortfall in imports from the European Union. I think the foreign investment will increase from the United States and China which both countries will take advantage with lower tariffs with Britain. However, this will not replace the investment losses due to Brexit in the short term. While we will be in a sort of a customs union, we would be allowed to make our own trade deals as long as we can prevent goods sourced from the outside of the EU from crossing the border. I think we will get a Trade Deal with the United States rather quickly and the terms of the deal would be a key debate in the 2019 general election.  I think the deal with the United States might include the proposed Space force and in agriculture, Boris Johnson is going to think big with his deal, after all, be seems ambitious with his numerous proposed bridges. Austerity measures will continue after Brexit in the public sector, however, I can see the Tories doing everything they can to keep the Post Brexit economy growing, there will be the largest increase in investment in since the 2008 crash. Much of this would be paid for a reduction of foreign aid.  As a result, we will have high inflation in 2019 perhaps the highest inflation we have seen since the 1970’s. I can also see the bank of England keeping interest as low as possible to encourage borrowing and to keep prices of housing and goods low. A decline in property prices post Brexit is also likely, due to the increase in house building and the decline in land banking from EU investors.  The Government is going to provide incentives and interest free loan schemes to a desperate attempt to get the Post Brexit economy going. This will be particularly impactful in London. Net Migration will go down, due to an increase of migration to outside the UK and a decrease in immigration to the UK. Immigration laws will not change in 2019 they will stay essentially the same than before to outside the EU. The service sector of the economy will go into decline for the first time since 2008 and there will be a slight increase in productivity amongst manufacturers that export outside the European Union.  I think this would be in new green and high-tech industries’ Conservative Government will encourage consumers to buy British Goods rather than imports from abroad and due to the increase in costs from imports we could see a small resurgence in British manufacturing. I can’t foresee major changes to Agriculture in this country we will leave the common agricultural policy and the Government will likely maintain much of the subsidies that the EU give to farmers. The fishing industry will do better outside the common fisheries policy, however, a situation similar to the Cod wars with Iceland with British and EU fishermen that continue to fish in British waters despite any agreement with the EU and the UK. Economic growth after Brexit will be extremely low, we will escape an economic recession by the skin of our teeth, perhaps at around 0.1% growth. However, I think things will quickly improve in following years. An increase in unemployment is inevitable in 2019 and will key part in a Political debate in 2019 due to the inevitable economic changes to this country as we leave the European Union.

That is the basic economic prediction in 2019, I would love to see what you think about this, we will see great economic difficulty however we will see the growth of new industries. There will be a massive disruption in customs as we will struggle to gain the administration to cope with exports and imports to the European Union, however, this disruption would he short term over the first half of 2019.

I can see a general election being called in September or October 2019, with the disruption of Brexit and a Conservative leadership contest I can’t see one being called in summer 2019. It would be a long a partisan campaign, however, it will result in a Labour Victory, Labour will have between 290 and 320 seats. It is possible that Labour will be forced into a supply and demand deal with the Liberal Democrats or the SNP in return for concessions most likely on voting reform and devolution. The election will be fought on key policies and there will be a backlash to Conservative failures with Brexit and young population that overwhelmingly supports Labour and a backlash against 8 years of austerity.