Tuesday, 6 November 2018

My Own Manifesto to Brexit

We are clearly in a difficult position brought about 2 years of incompetence by the Conservative Government. People from all aspects of society are extremely dissatisfied by the performance of the Conservative Government. The Minority Government has struggled to keep its Party together with the Conservative Party on this issue with dissatisfied Pro Europeans and Eurosceptics. The Government has struggled to keep its DUP partners on the side of the Government who has kept the Government in power in a supply and demand deal on key votes in parliament. Because of this support for a Peoples Vote and remaining in the EU has increased. Recent polls suggest remain would win another referendum with the results most like reversed. This still indicates the division in the United Kingdom. The most recent polls by Survation indicate a North-South Divide in England on Brexit. With Yorkshire being the most Eurosceptic region in the United Kingdom.

The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland voted to leave the European Union on the 23rd June 2016. 2016 was a hectic year for the western establishment, the year the establishment failed to get their own way on both sides of the pond. It was a clear backlash against the Neo-Liberal economics which was set up in the 1980s that replaced the new deal style economics in the western world. Many economists call this either supply-side economics and its critics trickle-down economics.  The name of this does not matter. What matters is that this economic position has failed the majority of people in the western world today. The promises of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan have not been fulfilled. Many people were left behind for decades the same people left behind lashed out at the establishment that told them that everything will be worse when themselves were the real reason for the anger against the establishment. For this very reason it those in power want to remain in place, the elite must adapt and recognise the ills of the working class. In a divided country there must be a mechanism to unify the nation and to pick up the pieces created by the economic incompetence of the political class. We need to build a society that is not about dog eats dog but a society where everyone cares about each other. 

 The current negotiations with the European Union could not be handled any worse than it currently is. In power, we have a clueless and directionless party who put their own personal interests and their careers first. The Conservative Party lacks new ideas and different methods to solve and address the issues of the time. They lack imagination and the Conservative Party fails to look outside the box on these issues. The question of Europe has always been the Achilles heel of the Conservative Party, well certainly at least the Post Thatcher years. The 2005 Conservative Party leadership election was thought on the issue of Europe between David Cameron and David Davis. These divisions became so extreme that 2 Conservative MPs Mark Reckless (it’s in the name) and Douglas Carswell defected to UKIP. The fear of more defections to UKIP led to the promise of a referendum by the Conservative leader David Cameron after the 2015 general election. This referendum was called in 2017, it brought out the ancient divisions in the Conservative Party into the public sphere. It led to one of the most toxic debates in history. Furthermore, it brought out career interests in certain Conservative MP's, this was the case with Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. The Question is why is this relevant? It’s quite simple, the future of Brexit and the future of the Conservative Party. The idea that I am advocating is that the issue of Europe will finally bring down the so-called "unified unit" of the Conservative Party. I would argue that these divisions, contributed to the confusion to what it’s the ideological direction and the economic plan for the Conservative Party. We get nothing coherent. I think this sensation resonates with Conservative supporters, I constantly hear many Tory voters that say that the Conservative Party is no longer Conservative. Theresa May when she became the Conservative leader emulated Ed Miliband in her first speech as Prime Minister. Though this was a clear attack on Labour at the time. The Governing Party has run out of ideas of the future, this phenomenon Is common when Parties exist in power for the long term. I would argue that the Conservatives have lacked clear and coherent economic ideas since 1997, even when they were in coalition with the Liberal Democrats where they supported a regressive austerity programme. It is clear we need a solution that will unite all sides of the country on Brexit that will enable a chivalrous debate and that will encourage the formation of new ideas of how to change this country for the better. The divisions within the Conservative Party on the question of Europe has made a proper debate on the key issues that matter virtually impossible. We deserve something better than Immigration vs Economic apocalypse.

 The previous Prime Minister David Cameron had his own fights with major Eurosceptics, the 2005 Conservative leadership election was largely thought on the issue with Europe with the Brexiter David Davis. Of course, the infighting in the Conservative Party on the issue of Europe was not only on ideological lines many MP's aligned themselves along with their career interests, such as Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. Boris Johnson is known for drafting an Article in the Sunday Times that backed remain that was never published. Instead, Boris Johnson published Article backing leave. It should be also noted that during his time as the Mayor of London Boris Johnson opposed a referendum on European Union Membership.    
                 
Many of the leading Conservatives in the EU referendum did not wholly believe in leaving the European Union. Looking at this perspective we can now understand some of the lies proposed by some of the key Brexiters during the campaign, most people can recite the red bus stating £350 million for the NHS. Theresa May in summer 2018 did try to follow up this proposal with a "Brexit dividend" which was also based on similar lies based on how it will be funded. I suspect the additional money promised to the NHS has more to do with the consecutive NHS winter crises that the country has faced in recent years. Furthermore, the idea that the leading Brexiters did not actually believe in leaving the European can justify the current state of the Brexit negotiations, how can you honestly negotiate when do not believe in what you are negotiating? Not only this, many of the major Brexiters who careerists were clearly (except for Boris Johnson) refuse to resign from the Government when Theresa May proposed essentially a soft Brexit in all but name at Chequers. Some of the Brexiters even went as far as public supporting the proposal, such as Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom. Before the resignations that followed the Chequers arrangement the clear majority was the cabinet was comprised of Remainers and individuals that I would like to call Careerist Brexiters. Henceforth, we never had a cabinet that was really committed to the idea of leaving the European Union. This can partially explain why the cabinet was largely clueless when it came to Brexit and why they lacked an ideological direction on the matter.  David Davis before the proposed Chequers arrangement was the Secretary of exiting the European Union. Unlike Boris Johnson, I am convinced that he believes in leaving the European Union. Firstly, I should mention that he has always campaigned to leave the European Union, he even though a Conservative leadership election against David Cameron in 2005.

Compared to the Careerist Brexiters David Davis attracted less publicity in the media. This was a rather common theme during the Referendum.  This was a major reason there were so many lies sold by vote leave and Brexiters. Though many lies that were sold during the referendum were done by Remainers such as in David Cameron’s Pro Remain leaflets that cost the taxpayer £9 million. Many of us that supported the Labour Leave campaign chaired by Kate Hoey and John Millis was rather a concern of the media complete ignorance that the media showed the campaign. The left wingers in Grassroots out and Lexit the leave campaign. This certainly lowered the level of debate to what I saw toxic mudslinging. Labours campaign for remain also had a similar treatment by the media, Jeremy Corbyn did more pro remain rallies than any other Politician, though Jeremy Corbyn was the most reluctant Remainer politician in the country. The failure of the media to engage with alternate narratives condemned Brexit as the media allowed the viewpoints of the most toxic aspects of society to succeed in winning public favour.

The idea of having a Brexiter (David Davis) negotiating Brexit should have reassured Brexiters and Remainers who wished to see the result honoured that the result of the vote was followed through. Unlike the careerists in the Conservative Party David Davis undermined and condemned Brexit why his weak presence in the cabinet and by his incompetence. Sort of a boy that cried wolf effect occurred in Government as David Davis frequently threatened to resign but failed to follow through with the act. One example, was the scandal with Damian Green where he threatened to resign if Damian Green was sacked over the scandal that he had porn saved on this work computer in Parliament. Negotiation was rather slow during his tenure of the Secretary of State for exiting the European Union in 2018 he only had a total of 4 hours in meeting officials from the European Union. The Brexit negotiations were meant to be the most important negotiations that we had since the Second World war at Yalta and Potsdam. So, the question that must be asked, why the lack of commitment from an individual that is supposed to be fanatically Eurosceptic? Many suggest the issue is with Theresa May and the cabinet holding him back, of course, after chequers and after Dominic Rabb became the Secretary of State for exiting the European Union he was sidelined in favour of Theresa May. So perhaps an element of that argument is valid. I think the main issue with David Davis is his complete incompetence, I think we were too weak-willed to be trusted on in any negotiation. We should be reminded that it took 9 months to have an agreement with the EU, this was on the withdrawal bill. To conclude my point the failure of David Davis and the other Government ministers working under him is one of the major reasons why we are in the position that we are in with Brexit.

There are several things that the left has been considering at this stage. The Peoples Vote is a subject that is gaining ground amongst some groups, this is very problematic.  Firstly, we would most likely vote the same we that we did on the 23rd June 2016, depending on the terms of the vote. Secondly, the Peoples Vote will be even more toxic and divisive than the first one. The first referendum divided people across the country and tore families apart. We should examine the nasty debate from the first referendum while, we did not debate the core issues around EU membership and a future vision for this country, instead both sides used a fear style campaign based on project fear either on immigration or economic apocalypse. I am not opposed to the concept of direct democracy and people having their say on the future relationship on EU membership, however, I am against the idea of having another referendum without honouring the first one and carrying it out. I do understand how problematic that is if we consider the complexity around EU membership, I think as a society we should do more to encourage a discussion on the future direction of this nation. However, I do support the idea of voting on the type of deal that you want, whether that is Theresa May's Chequers, Canada ++++ (whatever that is), or even a No deal. I think it's better to have a general election to deal with these issues, were we can have a real discussion on what we can do post-Brexit, a left-wing vision a right-wing vision, or perhaps on the idea of remaining in the EU. Currently, in this nation, we have so many domestic issues that in the viewpoints of most people in this country are simply more important than Brexit.

We need to take a position against many failing Neo-Liberal globalist institutions across the globe, that includes the European Union and other institutions such as the IMF. We currently have huge global challenges to deal with, which we will need to interact with countries across the world. Therefore, we need to encourage the growth of institutions that bring countries together on issues such as climate change. We are currently doing little to solve these issues. Tony Benn talked about the creation of a Commonwealth of Europe based on co-operation with other countries on these issues. This is an idea that we should pursue. We should also maintain and even better improve the current legislation of the European Union. One example of this is the Environmental Liability Directive.

Many people on the left believe in the idea of a Social Europe, the idea of using the EU to protect workers’ rights for instance. This is a rather noble idea. The European Union in this concept can be used as a barrier and a check and balance to the policies to any regressive Conservative Government in power. Since the late 1980's the majority of the Labour Party has taken this position. The European Union has led to more workers’ rights, take the working time directive for example which are not terrible ideas. We should be aiming to maintain these and improve on these laws post-Brexit. The British people have a responsibility to elect a Government that will protect these rights. We should go about also empowering Trade Unions and encouraging the idea of collective bargaining as a viable check and balance.

I think that complaining about the lack of democratic accountability within the European Union and the institutions associated with it without looking at the failures at home. This will not be turned into a discussion on how the European Union operates, I think it's more important at this point to look at affairs at home. We have a lack of transparency in Government, Parliament and in our institutions. We have a political system that is biased towards London and the South East. We have an unelected second chamber the House of Lords, we have the House of Commons that is not entirely representative on the views of the British people due to the First by the Post electoral system. We also have an unelected Monarch, in many ways our constitution is still quite medieval in its nature. Many people during the referendum saw the European Union as being a foreign institution above Parliament. It was not foreign institution since we did have a role moulding the current European Union at it is today, but it was another institution that acted with and above parliament. This often-clouded judgement on who to blame for a specified issue, sometimes the EU was a fault and sometimes It was the British Government for a policy that some members of the British public did not approve on. Take Immigration and then, EU competition rules that would limit what a left-wing Government could nationalise. In Post Brexit Britain we need to make it clear who we should hold to account we so can create a better future. I do recognise that many politicians did take the EU for granted this way, so people blamed the EU for a problem at home or a problem that the British Government can solve with the EU.

The reality is this nation is a broken nation, in a broken global economic order and the debate on Europe should be how to fix these problems. We have major internal social, economic and political problems. We have major economic problems such as low productivity, a decline in real wages. economic deprivation, a trade deficit with most of the globe. Our Political system is in dire need for reform just look at the Monarchy, the house of commons, local devolution, the voting system and the House of Lords for starters. For our own societal problems, we can look at, education, our media, our culture, or identity and just the general anger and confusion that the public has. Consecutive Governments has failed to solve these major problems. Many people feel disconnected to Westminster and to the rest of Greater London, people feel more English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish/ Northern Irish than they did in the past, there is a general confusion about British identity, many people have claimed Brexit was a result of an English Identity crisis, the reality is there is a British identity crisis. This idea has come about from individuals that feel disconnected from society. People feel left behind.  Much of the wealth in our economy was concertinaed in London and in the city of London, approximately 80% of the wealth of this nation is created in London from the financial sector. Much of this wealth does not touch most of the British population. We still live under the Neo-Liberal style economics introduced in the 1980's in this country by Margret Thatcher as she transferred this economy to a service sector economy rather than an industrial manufacturing-based economy.    

 Many of the former Manufacturing areas of the United Kingdom still are some of the most economically deprived areas of the United Kingdom. Many areas receive a lack of investment from both the Government and the private sector. In some former Industrial towns, wages have decreased on average since 2010. Many people felt that they had their futures were stolen and their local areas robbed of their wealth. Many older individuals in Northern Industrial towns and cities believe they were better off before the 1970's before Thatcherism and before we joined the European Community. I think the main problem we see currently is the vast economic imbalances we see in this country, the British economy is too based towards London and regional centres, Investment in our economy has remained stagnant for decades, working rights have been stagnant due to the destruction of the rights of the trade unions, the lack of skilled high paid work, the commercialisation of education. I could name many more issues such as our trade deficit we are in a situation that we are completely stagnating as a society compared to other nations in the west. Many of these issues go side by side with economic liberalisation in the west and a lack of any form of intervention to deal with the negative effects that go side by side with the rise of the East Asian economies. We need to look for a brand new and radical economic direction in this country that benefits most of the British population. We certainly need to move away from supply-side economics that has failed to deliver on its promises that the wealth from the rich will trickle down to the poorest in society. The question that we must ask ourselves is how to achieve this? Corbyn's Labour Party offers a Neo-Keynesian economic vision for the country, a reformed version of the post-war economic conscious that is suited a modern world that must deal with global issues.

We should also look at the ideas of reforming and/or creating an alternative organisation to the European Union at its current state. How do we change the European Union as it is presently constituted and if we can what do we change it to?  That is a very difficult question to answer even for Yanis Varoufakis or can we create another institution that workers in a more democratic and benevolent manner without the Neo-Liberal economics attached. This has always been the position of Tony Benn on Europe to create an alternative Commonwealth of Europe based on voluntary co-operation on key issues that affect the continent of Europe at large and this is the idea I think the left should be open to. Regardless, we are going to need to work with DiEM25 the only organisation that currently would reform the EU in a progressive way if it had the chance. The major problem we have with all of this is that there is a lack of a discussion of Europe in this country. There is a lack of coverage on the media in Britain on European affairs. We focus too much of immigration and the migrant crisis, we don't talk about that Italy has not had direct control over its treasury for years, we don't talk about the EU forcing austerity measures on countries such as Cyprus.

"Another way would be to have a looser, wider Europe. I have an idea for a Commonwealth of Europe. I am introducing a bill on the subject. Europe would be rather like the British Commonwealth. We would work by consent with people. Or we could accept this ghastly proposal, which is clumsy, secretive, centralized, bureaucratic and divisive. That is how I regard the Treaty of Rome. I was born a European and I will die one. But I have never put my alliance behind the Treaty of Rome. I object to it. I hate being called an anti-European. How can one be anti-European when one is born in Europe? It is like saying that one is anti-British if one does not agree with the Chancellor of the Exchequer." Tony Benn  20th November 1991

We should join EFTA until we can have a unified position of what we should do in the long-term future. The aim should be to transition out of European federalist institutions Another reason why we should do this is that EFTA is likely to resemble a reformed European Union without the Euro and the elements of centralisation that currently exist in the European Union. Britain joined EFTA as a founding member of EFTA in 1960, it was designed to be an alternative to the European Union without the political attachments of the European Union. Therefore, this could be a compromise with both sides on the EU question. We should not join the EEA this will require us to join the Schengen Area. EEA agreement states, that while any European country that becomes a member of the EU shall join the EEA, any new EFTA member may apply for us to become a part of it. We would, in theory, have a Switzerland style deal. EFTA will keep us in the single market but outside a Customs Union, countries such as Iceland are in EFTA. This will solve the issue with the Northern Irish border and will maintain the status quo at large economically while bringing more power back home to Westminster e.g. on fishing and agriculture. Then we should have a real debate on what should we do with regards to Europe. We also should note that revoking article 50 to anyone who wants to stop Brexit may require another negotiation. Being outside the EU itself we would not be tied to the European Union and hence any re-negotiation in the future in these terms will put us in a stronger position. Joining the EFTA would require little negotiation and the transition into it would be rather smooth compared to the likelihood of what the Tories are likely going to do with Brexit. In EFTA for the next few years, we should aim in my opinion to have a meaningful free trade deal. Where we return decision making to Westminster and devolved administrations.  We should also create a brand new British alternative to the ECJ during this process with a similar role. EFTA will give us the ability to make our own trade deals. EFTA countries such as Iceland and Switzerland have separate trade deals with countries such as China. ETFA (European Free Trade Organisation) has its own free trade deals with countries such as Mexico, Japan, Turkey, Canada and South Korea.  As a member of EFTA, we would have access to these trade deals as stated in article 56 of the EFTA Convention. EFTA would make deals with certain countries such as the United States difficult due to regulatory alignment with EFTA and the EU for many goods but not legally impossible as it currently is for the United Kingdom as a member of the European Union.  EFTA is informal free trade talks with, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and the MERCOSUR countries (Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina). Potentially we would have access to trade deals in rapidly growing economies across the world as a member state of ETFA. 

Unlike joining the EEA or a separate single market and/or a customs arrangement the European Union has no control over who joins and leaves EFTA. That is determined by the EFTA council and the EFTA member states. The main difference between EFTA and EEA in these respects is that the EEA is aimed to mimic EU membership while outside the EU and EFTA is a free trade agreement throughout the continent of Europe. EFTA member states stated they are open to the idea of British membership though Norway is sceptical due to the fear of British domination in EFTA. It is easy to see why Britain’s population is larger than all the 4 EFTA countries combined. There has been a mixed response from Switzerland due to fears that Britain’s membership could harm the Swiss financial services sector. Lichtenstein was also fearful that the British dependencies and overseas territories could threaten its status as a tax haven. There are still some negotiations and compromises needed for EFTA membership through the basic terms of joining are stated in EFTA convention though we already meet them as current members of the European Union. As a member of EFTA, we would theoretically be able to veto any new rules while we are a member. With approximately 20 months of failure to gain a workable deal with Brexit, we are in a difficult position. The Government has made no are little preparation to a No Deal Brexit. An exit out of the European Union that I never advocated. Into World Trade Organisation rules with the EU and the rest of the world. The World Trade Organisation is also currently under threat from Donald Trump. The President of the United States has continuously threated to pull out of the World Trade Organisation. The very founding member of the World Trade Organisation and the most powerful nation on the Earth leaving the World Trade Organisation could threaten its very existence. We should proceed with caution with the World Trade Organisation. Russia has also repeatedly blocked our applications to join the Word Trade Organisation Post Brexit, it would be potentially catastrophic if that occurred under a No Deal scenario. We also have a Hung Parliament with a minority Conservative Government that remains in power because of the support it receives from the Democratic Unionist Party. There is barely a majority for the Chequers deal that the Conservative leadership is supporting. With the current situation in Parliament, any divisive Brexit deal will get voted down, the Labour leadership have committed to vote down and Brexit deal that the Government would likely to have in hope for an early general election.  

It took approximately 9 years for the EU to fully negotiate its trade deal with Canada negotiating trade deals with the European Union does not happen overnight. Any deal that the Conservative Party will drafted up quickly and will leave a lot to be desired. An article 50 extension to extend the negotiations is extremely unlikely as it must pass through both parliament and the European Union. Many leading figures in the European Union such as Guy Verhofstadt have constantly ruled an extension of Article 50. I think the EFTA solution can be a better compromise between all parties rather than the extremely unpopular Chequers style deal.

Many Conservative MP’s back a Canada style trade deal. This idea is extremely problematic. Many of the supporters of this deal call it Canada +++ which would be a deal like the one between Canada and the European Union. The Canada deal, in theory, reduces tariffs by 97% on average. However, this comes with heavy corporatist baggage. Many critics have called the CETA (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement) trade deal between the EU and Canada TTIP’s (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership) little sister. This Neo-Liberal Corporatist trade deal, it promotes corporatism encourages privatisation and undermines workers’ rights. Future Governments will not be able to reverse Privatisation in the NHS because of CETA without a legal challenge. This has already happened because of this; Virgin Care sued the NHS for £2 million after losing out on a £28 million contract in June 2018 to provide Children’s medical services. This occurred due to the CETA Multilateral Investment Court. This is the main worry that we should have for a Canadian style deal that is promoted by certain Tory Brexiters. It could both encourage privatisation and encourage further degradation of workers’ rights.

Britain is a great importer and not an export as we once were in the past. We have a trade deficit, especially with the European Union. Approximately 50% of our imports go to the European Union. Our productivity has been almost entirely stagnant in the last 30 years. Investment in % of GDP by both the private and public sector into Britain has steadily declined in the last 30 years after the deindustrialisation of the United Kingdom. We have an over bloated financial services sector that is concentrated in London. Our economy needs to be rebalanced in the long term and this should be the aim of any Government with an economic plan. The leader of the Labour Party Jeremy Corbyn has already addressed this in his build it Britain speech, where he promoted a programme to create brand new industries in some of the most deprived parts of the country. Many of the policies of Labour in the 2017 Manifesto for the many and not the few promoted policies that will lead to the growth of new industries in these areas. Some of the fastest growing local economies in the UK are in local councils that have embraced Pro Corbyn economic policies such as in Rotherham and Preston. As we transition out of the EU we need to implement these economic ideas.

 While we transition out of the EU through the EFTA we need to look at several issues that we need to solve. Firstly, the immense division on the issue of Brexit in this country. Secondly, influential members of the British establishment want to reverse Brexit. Thirdly, the prospect of big business moving its money out of the country. Fourthly a post Brexit vision for the future of the United Kingdom and the future of the integrity of the United Kingdom. Finally, the issue with the border with Northern Ireland. Therefore, I would need a proposal to solve this issue. Now I could call for a creation of a council of Britain’s relationship of the EU, its name does not matter. But its importance is what purpose and what this council would do. Firstly, I would need to address who will make up this council. It would be created by the Minister for exiting the European Union. It will be comprised of representatives from all major political Parties with, MEP’s, MP’s, members of the Welsh Assembly, the Northern Ireland Executive and the Scottish Parliament.  We would need representatives from every local council in the nation. It’s important we get all aspects of our political system on board. We would need 2 representatives from major British Owned Businesses that want to be a part of the council, one appointed by the shareholders and one elected by the employees. We would representatives from Trade Unions as well especially the Eurosceptic ones that tend to get ignored such as PCS. This is just the start of what I think what should have happened after the vote to leave the EU.  Let’s say this council had 9 months to decide a common position that represented everyone in this nation. We needed to get people to unify on one position on Brexit while honouring the result. This was probably one of the most important decisions in our recent history. The idea of this is to create a unified economic plan and a negotiating position for the future. The issue plaguing this nation is that we have a bunch of clueless malicious fools running the country. We needed an actual Government that actually wanted to give every citizen a bright future that is not afraid to do something that is not a part of the common political consensus in this nation.  This council needs to work side by side with the Government and to be accountable to Parliament to help the country form economic policy will negotiating a free trade deal Many people believed that leaving the European Union would be easy and the transition to leaving the European Union would leave to a right-wing libertarian society on the right and the left believed we can use Brexit to realign our economy, People want certainty and hope, but at this stage, it would be very difficult since most people are now entrenched in their positions.  With my position it will assist in achieving that, we need to gather the best intellectuals from a range of different parts of our society 

Eventually, we should aim to have a free trade agreement that will be put the United Kingdom out of a single market and a customs union. Instead, we would have a low tariff deal with a customs arrangement. This will take years to negotiate and implement over time. We have not negotiated a trade deal independently in the last 40 years. We need more times to develop our civil service and our infrastructure to implement a new deal. Due to the number of years (most likely around 5 years) have past then I would be time to hold another referendum on our future relationship with the European Union. The Euro would most likely not be a requirement to join the European Union at this stage, due to its internal issues in the Eurozone and the likelihood of Italy leaving the Euro in the next few years. At this time the European Union and the amount of pressure it would be under in the next few years it would be most likely that the EU would be very different at this time so that option could be still on the table.

A key part of the debate on the European Union is to do with Immigration. Despite being overexaggerated we do need a reformed immigration system with the EU as we transition out. Borders and immigration are necessary evils to combat the disabling forces that affect open borders and to control the market forces that wish to exploit cheap immigrant Labour. While we have the nation-state, Immigration should be moulded and be fluid to meet the nations need. For example, we currently need to encourage skilled migration to migrate to this country as opposed to low skilled Labour. Our Immigration policy must always be humanist and empathetic especially towards refugees fleeing conflict in Africa and the Middle East. We certainly do need to learn from our mistakes especially after the awful and perhaps racist Windrush scandal of 2018 that led to the resignation of Amber Rudd though her predecessors and the current Prime Minister Theresa May is more to blame for the issue people are not criminals for just migrating to this country. We should have a reformed based system like what we saw the Commonwealth countries in terms of Immigration policy outside the European Union. Due to our proximity to Europe, I suggest a basic travel visa and a basic work visa that an individual could easily apply for that would be a visa for the European Union giving similar benefits to the freedom of movement and a long-term visa for visits for longer than 3 months.  This could only occur if we have a meaningful hard Brexit deal which is unlikely now. The current proposal is a £6 visa between the EU and the UK, but I think that is for tourism and no other uses. A separate arrangement is required for Northern Ireland, Gibraltar, Akrotiri and Dhekelia. Sorting the Northern Ireland question would be the most difficult arrangement, but I cannot see a deal that will not have any Irish sea border controls. I know they are vague proposals, but I see it as a compromise.

I know this is a rather long essay I hope you have managed to read it all. The purpose is to have a basic overview of our current situation with Brexit and what we should ideally do now.  I understand that the reader may not think that due to the length of this, however, this subject is such a complex fractured mess it is almost impossible to do that, in this essay, I will miss out many key details on what we could do with Brexit and what we should do. This is likely not going to happen. I think we will most like have Chequers or a deal like Chequers with a customs union for the foreseeable future. I think it’s time we in this country try to be rather ambitious with new ideas how we can change not just British society at a local level, but we should look further afield to change affairs in Europe and beyond. Thanks for reading.

Wednesday, 31 October 2018

Protectionism and Donald Trump

In terms of global free trade, many observers of political events have discussed the possibility of a trade war. Recent news articles have discussed the possibility of Trump leaving the World Trade Organisation. Then we also get articles about the possibility of Russia trying to block Britain's membership of the World Trade Organisation post-Brexit. However, from my observation, many people do not understand the historical context of protectionism within the west and why Trumps America is promoting this policy.

Trump's trade policy is not unorthodox in any way. This does not mean I approve of this trade policy at all. For most of the history of the United States, the country has used a protectionist economic policy. The First President of the United States George Washington as early of 1789 used tariffs to protect the homegrown industry and to generate revenue to invest in national infrastructure. In 1789 the Young Republic was an underdeveloped backwater, with a population similar to Ireland at the time. The nation was largely agrarian and there was a lack of unity between the states. Many individual states had their own independent trade policy.

In the late 18th century and the early 19th-century Britain began a process of industrialisation. After the Napoleonic war, the United Kingdom completely dominated global trade and commerce. To protect itself from cheap British products and to promote further economic expansion. (The United States had a rapidly growing population and economy through immigration at large.) The United States successfully protected local domestic firms from overseas competition.  The Republican Party and their predecessors that include National Republican Party, Whig Party, and the Free-Soil Party believed in Protectionism over free trade.

Tariff reform was an important issue in the 1888 Presidental election that resulted in the victory of the Republican candidate  Benjamin Harrison

The question of protectionism was a key part in the debate between the Democrats and the Republicans alongside the issue with slavery before the American Civil War between 1861 and 1865. The economy of the Southern States was based on exports of goods such as Cotton, Tobacco, and Sugarcane to Europe, this was done predominately by Slave Labour like it has been done long before the declaration of independence on the 4th July 1776. The Southern Slave owners and Democrats in the United States in the period before the Civil War believed that tariffs would lead to the imposition of tariffs on the United States by foreign nations that would render the economies of the deep south uncompetitive. The Economy in the North was based more on heavy industry in states such as Illinois and Pennsylvania where its economies were modelled in a similar way to the United Kingdom. Following the Civil War Republican dominance in politics ensured dominance on protectionist policies despite the pro-free trade policies of some following Democrat presidents such as Woodrow Wilson.

Image result for American protectionism poster
This Canadian poster from 1891 suggests that a policy of tariff retaliation against the United States is needed to protect Canadian Agriculture. 

The Great War greatly benefited the American economy.  The United States, in the need to fuel their war effort the allied nations imported goods from the United States on mass. The total value of U.S. exports grew from $2.4 billion in 1913 to $6.2 billion in 1917.  The continued attacks by the German submarines on American merchant ships exporting to Europe led to American involvement in the in the war in 1917. Woodrow Wilson was not a protectionist, he was both pro-free trade and was a Democrat. Woodrow Wilson was not an isolationist too, he believed in more international intervention and he came up with the idea of creating internationalist organisations to bind nations together such as the League of Nations. Woodrow Wilson created the League of Nations in 1920, however, due to pressure at home the American Congress was against American membership popular opinion in the United States moved towards isolationism and more protectionism.

The Wall Street Crash of 1929 was the greatest stock market crash in the history of the United States. It led to a 12 year long great depression that affected many western economies. In the United States, unemployment peaked at 25% in 1933. In a response to the Great Depression, the United States introduced even more protectionist Policies. One example of this is the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. This intended to protect American businesses and farmers suffering from the Great Depression. In many respects this was counterproductive. Many European countries despite being tied to the United State through war debt from the Great War (The United Kingdom even defaulted on the debt) in introduced protectionist policies both in the response to the United States and the Great Depression.

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff was controversial when it was introduced in 1930. Most economists believe that it made the Great Depression worse.

The move away from protectionism in the United States began after the Second World War. Free Trade was used to bind the Capitalist economies together against the Soviet bloc. After the Second World War, the old European Imperial powers lacked much of their pre-war ability to compete with the economic powerhouse that was the United States of America. This was apparent in the Suez Crisis where President Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956 where the decaying Imperial powers of France and Britain failed to hold their own against American demands of their withdrawal from Egypt. The United States threatened to sell the US Governments Pound Sterling bonds. This would have significantly weakened the British economy. America was not threatened by foreign competition. The 1946 Anglo-American Loan also tied the United State and Great Britain and its colonies together economically, it prevented drastic hikes in tariffs to prevent and trade conflicts in the future. The Loan was supported by Britain as it enabled the nation to build its Socialist welfare state under the Attlee Government between 1945 and 1950. The United States also was one of the nations in the general agreement of trade in October 1947, which lasted until the creation of the World Trade Organisation in 1995.

The United States was the centre of the Capitalist world. It championed Free Trade between western capitalist nations and encouraged it. American Marshall aid tied European economies together and led to the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community in 1951, this economic union led to the creation of the European Union. It was not until the presidency of Ronald Reagan who changed economics in America into Neo-Liberalism instead of the new deal economics that was championed by Franklin D. Roosevelt. That the United States began to use protectionist economic policies to economies that threatened the United States, even if he championed free trade. Reagan imposed high tariffs on Japanese auto goods. While there was a growth of a strong protectionist wing in the Democrat Party.

A Czechoslovak propaganda poster against the Marshall Plan. The title is can be translated as The Marshall Plan in Practice.
In the Post-Cold War America briefly enjoy existence as a sole global economic superpower with one global economic system of American style capitalism across the world. Globalisation was brought American goods and influence on every corner of human civilisation.  However, the decline of the United States began instantly after this process. The early 21st century brought about the rise of economies in the far east, this was particularly the case with the rise of China. China until 2016 was the fastest growing economy on Earth, it is now currently the largest economy on Earth. While for decades American manufacturing has gone into rapid decline. The Industrial heartland of the United States is now referred to as the rust belt.

The election of Donald Trump in the United States was a shock to many. His election should not be a shock. Many people felt left behind in the United States and they wanted someone completely different to the political norm, take the example of Pennsylvania for example, it is considered a rust belt state that delivered Republican electoral college votes rather than Democrat ones in previous Presidential elections. The election was also brought about the dreadful campaign by the dreadful candidate Hillary Clinton. That was backed by big business and Wall Street who was the wife of the previous president Bill Clinton. Hillary Clinton was also an extremely corrupt Secretary of State. 

Trump sees himself as an anti-globalist president. He has imposed tariffs on countless countries in the so-called name for fairer trade. He wants to "Make America Great Again", slow down the inevitable decline of the United States. The three countries/trading blocs he has focused on is tariffs on are Mexico, China and the European Union. Trump believes America has been unfairly hit by free trade, Trump also feels that the United States has been conned by previous Presidents that allowed the rise of the BRIC economies in the expense of the United States. Trump has forced a re-negotiation of NAFTA until a new trade deal. Trump has pulled the United States out of Trans-Pacific Trade Partnership and has considered re-joining if the deal can be re-negotiated. Trump is also keen, to have a Post Brexit trade deal with the United Kingdom.

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This cartoon perfect depiction of the current situation between the United States and China after Trump imposed tariffs on China.
To conclude this essay, I will briefly discuss what is happening with Trump and his trade policy. Trump like Reagan aims to protect American industries from overseas competition. Trump like him or loathe him aims to restructure the global economic system in favour of the United States, Trump wants a revitalisation of the American Dream and Capitalism. He appears to want protectionism for certain professions that have been in decline in the United States particularly in Manufacturing. He appears to have a Libertarian light vision for the global economy. During his election he flirted with the idea of pulling out of many internationalist organisations, this has not happened. America is not turning Isolationistic. America under Trump appears to be more jingoistic and militaristic. In a way, Trump is trying to mimic Reagan. Reagan supported a Star Wars programme to protect the United States, Trump wants an American space force to enable American domination in space. Overall, I think Trump is only using protectionism as a tool in favour of the United States and his ideological worldview.

Monday, 22 October 2018

What we should do with Brexit at this current time.

I wrote before a few weeks ago what is most likely going to happen with Brexit. Now I am going to write a short piece on what we should do today. As of the time of writing this, we are in late October the extended deadline given by the EU for a deal is in Early November. We are clearly in a difficult position brought about 2 years of incompetence by the Conservative Government. People from all aspects of society are extremely dissatisfied by the performance of the Conservative Government. The Minority Government has struggled to keep its Party together with the Conservative Party on this issue with dissatisfied Pro Europeans and Eurosceptics. The Government has struggled to keep its DUP partners on the side of the Government who has kept the Government in power in a supply and demand deal on key votes in parliament.

There are several things that the left have been considering at this stage. The Peoples Vote is a subject that is gaining ground amongst some groups, this is very problematic.  Firstly, we would most likely vote the same we that we did on the 23rd June 2016, depending on the terms of the vote. Secondly, the Peoples Vote will be even more toxic and divisive than the first one. The first referendum divided people across the country and tore families apart. We should examine the nasty debate from the first referendum while, we did not debate the core issues around EU membership and a future vision for this country, instead both sides used a fear style campaign based on project fear either on immigration or economic apocalypse. I am not opposed to the concept of direct democracy and people having their say on the future relationship on EU membership, however, I am against the idea of having another referendum without honouring the first one and carrying it out. I do understand how problematic that is if we consider the complexity around EU membership, I think as a society we should do more to encourage a discussion on the future direction of this nation. However, I do support the idea of voting on the type of deal that you want, whether that is Theresa May's Chequers, Canada ++++ (whatever that is), or even a No deal. I think it's better to have a general election to deal with these issues, were we can have a real discussion on what we can do post-Brexit, a left-wing vision a right-wing vision, or perhaps on the idea of remaining in the EU. Currently, in this nation, we have so many domestic issues that in the viewpoints of most people in this country are simply more important than Brexit.

We need to take a position against many failing Neo-Liberal globalist institutions across the globe, that includes the European Union and other institutions such as the IMF. We currently have huge global challenges to deal with, which we will need to interact with countries across the world. Therefore, we need to encourage the growth of institutions that bring countries together on issues such as climate change. We are currently doing little to solve these issues. Tony Benn talked about the creation of a Commonwealth of Europe based on co-operation with other countries on these issues. This is an idea that we should pursue. We should also maintain and even better improve the current legislation of the European Union. One example of this is the Environmental Liability Directive.

Many people on the left believe in the idea of a Social Europe, the idea of using the EU to protect workers’ rights for instance. This is a rather noble idea. The European Union in this concept can be used as a barrier and a check and balance to the policies to any regressive Conservative Government in power. Since the late 1980's the majority of the Labour Party has taken this position. The European Union has led to more workers’ rights, take the working time directive for example which are not terrible ideas. We should be aiming to maintain these and improve on these laws post-Brexit. The British people have a responsibility to elect a Government that will protect these rights. We should go about also empowering Trade Unions and encouraging the idea of collective bargaining as a viable check and balance.

I think that complaining about the lack of democratic accountability within the European Union and the institutions associated with it without looking at the failures at home. This will not be turned into a discussion on how the European Union operates, I think it's more important at this point to look at affairs at home. We have a lack of transparency in Government, Parliament and in our institutions. We have a political system that is biased towards London and the South East. We have an unelected second chamber the House of Lords, we have the House of Commons that is not entirely representative on the views of the British people due to the First by the Post electoral system. We also have an unelected Monarch, in many ways our constitution is still quite medieval in its nature. Many people during the referendum saw the European Union as being a foreign institution above Parliament. It was not foreign institution since we did have a role moulding the current European Union at it is today, but it was another institution that acted with and above parliament. This often-clouded judgement on who to blame for a specified issue, sometimes the EU was a fault and sometimes It was the British Government for a policy that some members of the British public did not approve on. Take Immigration and then, EU competition rules that would limit what a left-wing Government could nationalise. In Post Brexit Britain we need to make it clear who we should hold to account we so can create a better future. I do recognise that many politicians did take the EU for granted this way, so people blamed the EU for a problem at home or a problem that the British Government can solve with the EU.

The reality is this nation is a broken nation, in a broken global economic order and the debate on Europe should be how to fix these problems. We have major internal social, economic and political problems. We have major economic problems such as low productivity, a decline in real wages. economic deprivation, a trade deficit with most of the globe. Our Political system is in dire need for reform just look at the Monarchy, the house of commons, local devolution, the voting system and the House of Lords for starters. For our own societal problems, we can look at, education, our media, our culture, or identity and just the general anger and confusion that the public has. Consecutive Governments has failed to solve these major problems. Many people feel disconnected to Westminster and to a greater extent London, people feel more English, Scottish, Welsh and Irish/ Northern Irish than they did in the past, there is a general confusion about British identity, many people have claimed Brexit was a result of an English Identity crisis, the reality is there is a British identity crisis. This idea has come about from individuals that feel disconnected from society. People feel left behind.  Much of the wealth in our economy was concertinaed in London and in the city of London, approximately 80% of the wealth of this nation is created in London from the financial sector. Much of this wealth does not touch most of the British population. We still live under the Neo-Liberal style economics introduced in the 1980's in this country by Margret Thatcher as she transferred this economy to a service sector economy rather than an industrial manufacturing-based economy.        

 Many of the former Manufacturing areas of the United Kingdom still are some of the most economically deprived areas of the United Kingdom. Many areas receive a lack of investment from both the Government and the private sector. In some former Industrial towns, wages have decreased on average since 2010. Many people felt that they had their futures were stolen and their local areas robbed of their wealth. Many older individuals in Northern Industrial towns and cities believe they were better off before the 1970's before Thatcherism and before we joined the European Community. I think the main problem we see currently is the vast economic imbalances we see in this country, the British economy is too based towards London and regional centres, Investment in our economy has remained stagnant for decades, working rights have been stagnant due to the destruction of the rights of the trade unions, the lack of skilled high paid work, the commercialisation of education. I could name many more issues such as our trade deficit we are in a situation that we are completely stagnating as a society compared to other nations in the west. Many of these issues go side by side with economic liberalisation in the west and a lack of any form of intervention to deal with the negative effects that go side by side with the rise of the East Asian economies. We need to look for a brand new and radical economic direction in this country that benefits most of the British population. We certainly need to move away from supply-side economics that has failed to deliver on its promises that the wealth from the rich will trickle down to the poorest in society. The question that we must ask ourselves is how to achieve this? Corbyn's Labour Party offers a Neo-Keynesian economic vision for the country, a reformed version of the post-war economic conscious that is suited a modern world that must deal with global issues.

We should also look at the ideas of reforming and/or creating an alternative organisation to the European Union at its current state. How do we change the European Union as it is presently constituted and if we can what do we change it to?  That is a very difficult question to answer even for Yanis Varoufakis or can we create another institution that workers in a more democratic and benevolent manner without the Neo-Liberal economics attached. This has always been the position of Tony Benn on Europe to create an alternative Commonwealth of Europe based on voluntary co-operation on key issues that affect the continent of Europe at large and this is the idea I think the left should be open to. Regardless, we are going to need to work with DiEM25 the only organisation that currently would reform the EU in a progressive way if it had the chance. The major problem we have with all of this is that there is a lack of a discussion of Europe in this country. We focus too much of immigration and the migrant crisis, we don't talk about that Italy has not had direct control over its treasury for years, we don't talk about the EU forcing austerity measures on countries such as Cyprus.

This essay was a brief discussion of what we should do with Brexit, please if you are reading this, share your thoughts and ask me any question on the subject. I will just conclude this issue by explaining what we should do now as a nation. We should join EFTA until we can have a unified position of what we should do in the long-term future. We should not join the EEA this will require us to join the Schengen Area. EFTA will keep us in the single market but outside a Customs Union, countries such as Iceland are in EFTA. This will solve the issue with the Northern Irish border and will maintain the status quo at large economically while bringing more power back home to Westminster e.g. on fishing and agriculture. Then we should have a real debate on what should we do with regards to Europe. We also should note that revoking article 50 to anyone who wants to stop Brexit may require another negotiation. Being outside the EU itself we would not be tied to the European Union and hence any re-negotiation in the future in these terms will put us in a stronger position. Joining the EFTA would require little negotiation and the transition into it would be rather smooth compared to the likelihood of what the Tories are likely going to do with Brexit. In EFTA for the next few years, we should aim in my opinion to have a meaningful free trade deal. Where we return decision making to Westminster and devolved administrations.  We should also create a brand new British alternative to the ECJ during this process with a similar role. Thanks for reading.


Tuesday, 9 October 2018

Global Neo-Liberalism a brief overview

In the 1980's and in the 1990's following the collapse of the Soviet Union most nations on Earth underwent a mass market liberalisation process. Most countries accepted the concept of Neo-Liberalism and Globalisation as the natural order. There was a narrative that you must lower taxes and empower private enterprise at the expense of the public sector. There was an idea that you should undermine your own industries by allowing your own manufacturing to move to China and the Asian Tiger economies. Many workers in these economies are being exploited in many countries like China they have little rights and many workers are forced to work in sweatshops with long hours with little pay for our own privilege in buying cheap goods. Many people not just in the United Kingdom felt left behind. In many western countries, these jobs were replaced with unstable service sector jobs since it was no longer competitive to have any form of major manufacturing industry. As people gain capital from the increasingly automated stock markets others grow rich from a rapid increase in borrowing for mortgages that many people could not afford. Much of the capital used for mortgages were created by the banks. see fractional reserve banking. Of course, the financial bubble went bust in 2008 it was the largest crash since the Wall Street crash of 1929, it was caused by a collapse of the housing bubble in the United States. It marked the end of global capitalism. The crash pulled a rug under the system. We had mass opposition to the system with the occupy movement where average people demanded more transparency and control over the capitalist system. Neo-Liberalism failed in 2008 but was resurrected by a series of intervention by the Neo-Liberal Western Governments. In 2008, for instance, Prime Minister Gordon Brown bailed out the banks for a total of £500 Billion. For the exception of Iceland, the perpetrators of the crash across the west got away with their crimes and incompetence, many kept their banker's bonuses. If the bailouts did not occur it is true that people would have been economically worse off, one could say with some of the policies implemented by Gordon Brown at this time saved the British economy from the fate of the Eurozone countries in the following years. The general response of those in power was not to punish for but the burden of the costs of the 2008 crash on the people who are responsible or those with the broader shoulders to pay for the crash. But the choice of the wealthy Neo-Liberal establishment, particularly across Europe to pay for the robbery at the hands of the bankers in 2008. Unlike in other countries in the United Kingdom, the British Coalition Government voluntary chose to undergo a disastrous policy that harmed working class people in all aspects of society. Overseas the issue was different, the European Union forced certain Eurozone countries to undergo austerity, Greece, Portugal, Cyprus and Italy to name a few. Greece even today has not recovered from the events of the 2008 crisis only in 2018 is when the economy has started to see some flickers of improvement. The International Monetary fund and the World Bank still back the Washington consensus that supports Privatisation, austerity, "so-called marker liberalisation processes" that these rich Bilderberg bankers seem to think it is good for the workers of the globe. As I write this on 9th October 2018 Argentine workers are striking against a possible IMF loan that will impose austerity on Argentina. We need to rethink the entire economic conscious that we built up after the war. We need to rethink globalisation and how we do things on this planet. This is simply not sustainable. At the time of writing this there is multiple times more debt than physical money in existence, this is another bubble waiting to explode. The aim of the internationalist left is to look towards reforming or even leaving these institutions. These people work for their won interests and not the interests of the workers. We are living in the time where Social/economic and even cultural inequality is increasing. Many of the global economic agreements do need some rethinking such as the Bretton Woods agreement. In many cases unrestrained capitalism is also polluting and wrecking the planet many scientists believe we are entering a 6th mass extinction. We have a lack of creativity and a lack of imagination to change our current situation and this will be the greatest barrier to change. You have to remember the ideas of Neo-Liberalism was developed alongside the ideas of Keynesian economics in the 1930's it actually spent decades on the fringe until the rise of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. It was the philosopher Alexander Rüstow that came up with the idea of Neo-Liberalism that had the idea of having an economic system in between controlled social and economic forces and classical liberalism.

Wednesday, 3 October 2018

What May happen in 2019 and with Brexit in the short term.

Brexit and politics of the United Kingdom within the next year

The following points and ideas are what I think what would most likely occur within the next year. I will firstly begin introducing what is Brexit and why we voted to leave the European Union, then I will discuss what is likely to occur at the writing on this essay in early October 2018.
Brexit is short for the British exit of the European Union.  It is the idea that Britain could leave the European Union and bring back many of the powers that have been acquired by the European Union since the United Kingdom had joined the EEC in 1973. The United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland voted to leave the European Union on the 23rd June 2016. 2016 was a hectic year for the western establishment, the year the establishment failed to get their own way on both sides of the pond. It was a clear backlash against the Neo-Liberal economics which was set up in the 1980’s that replaced the new deal style economics in the western world. Many economists call this either supply-side economics and its critics trickle-down economics.  The name of this does not matter. What matters is that this economic position has failed the majority of people in the west. Many people were left behind for decades the same people left behind lashed out at the establishment that told them that everything will be worse when themselves were the real reason for the anger against the establishment. For this very reason it those in power want to remain in place, the elite must adapt and recognise the ills of the working class. In a divided country there must be a mechanism to unify the nation and to pick up the pieces created by the economic incompetence of the political class. We need to build a society that is not about dog eats dog but a society where everyone cares about each other.

 The current negotiations with the European Union could not be handled any worse than it currently is. In power we have a clueless and directionless party who put their own personal interests and their careers first. The Conservative Party lacks new ideas and different methods to solve and address the issues of the time. They lack imagination and the Conservative Party fails to look outside the box on these issues. The question of Europe has always been the Achilles heel of the Conservative Party, well certainly at least the Post Thatcher years. The 2005 Conservative Party leadership election was thought on the issue of Europe between David Cameron and David Davis. These divisions became so extreme that 2 Conservative MPs Mark Reckless (it’s in the name) and Douglas Carswell defected to UKIP. The fear of more defections to UKIP led to the promise of a referendum by the Conservative leader David Cameron after the 2015 general election. This referendum was called in 2017, it brought out the ancient divisions in the Conservative Party into the public sphere. It led to one of the most toxic debates in history. Furthermore, it brought out career interests in certain Conservative MP's, this was the case with Boris Johnson and Michael Gove. The Question is why is this relevant? It’s quite simple, the future of Brexit and the future of the Conservative Party. The idea that I am advocating is that the issue of Europe will finally bring down the so-called "unified unit" of the Conservative Party. I would argue that these divisions, contributed to the confusion to what it’s the ideological direction and the plan for the future for the Conservative Party. I think this sensation resonates with Conservative supporters, I constantly hear many Tory voters that say that the Conservative Party is no longer Conservative. Theresa May when she became the Conservative leader emulated Ed Miliband in her first speech as Prime Minister. Though this was a clear attack on Labour at the time. This is important to think about to determine what is going to happen with the future with Brexit.
At the time of writing this, the United Kingdom has entered a place of uncertainty. Theresa May’s Brexit plans have been rejected by the European Union. The Chequers proposal was supposed to be the way to leave the European Union and supposedly honouring the vote without impeding the economy. This proposal was hated by both sides of the divide on Brexit. Chequers was proposed on the 6th July 2018 after 18 months of little progress in the Brexit negotiations. Except for the so-called divorce bill at £39 billion though this figure is likely to rise. In September 2018 Theresa May met with Michel Barnier in Salzburg in Austria the EU flat out disagreed with the Chequers proposals. Prompting Theresa May to discuss the potential of a No deal. With this period of uncertainty, the purpose of the following discussions is to talk about what is likely going to happen with Brexit.
The main part of the discussion is the leadership of the Conservative Party. Since the 2017 election people have discussed when is May is going to leave office. Who will challenge Theresa May and who is going to be her successor. Moreover, despite threats to oust Theresa May for the last year she remains in power.  There have been a handful of potential successors that have been an important part of the political discourse. We have Jacob Rees Mogg who has been discussed for the last year, however, he his firmly behind Boris Johnson. We have Boris Johnson who has manoeuvred himself to become the Conservative leader since the EU referendum, especially since he resigned from his position as Foreign Secretary. Boris Johnson is the most likely successor to Theresa May. There are also a few more possible candidates such as Sajid Javid, David Davis and Andrea Leadsom. Since becoming the Home Secretary after Amber Rudd resigned due to the Windrush scandal Sajid Javid has been posed to become the next Conservative leader. The issue with this is the majority of the Conservative membership are mainly Brexiters and internal polls suggest vast levels of support for Boris Johnson.

Another question we need to look it is the departure of Theresa May. Her track record suggests that she will remain Prime Minister. Most key votes in Parliament despite threats of rebellions go in the Governments favour.  Most possible leadership contenders such as Boris Johnson prove time and time again to be spineless when trying to oust May or undermine her leadership. Theresa May is one of the worst Prime Ministers we have had in modern history but at least she knows how to stay in power. The likely hood of Theresa May being ousted is low. I think most Conservative MP’s despite what happens with Brexit do not want to cause the Government to collapse and risk another general election where they are bound to lose. I think Theresa May will stay in power until early April where she will resign though her own free will after we are currently due to leave the European Union.
After examining the membership of the Conservative Party, it is certain that a Brexiter will become Prime Minister. Internal polls within the Conservative Party show support for Boris Johnson to become the leader of the Conservative Party. Boris Johnson is the most likely candidate to become Prime Minister. A leadership election in 2019 would not be as quick and divisive as the last one as of the candidates stepped down in favour of Theresa May. Instead of taking less than a month to conclude the next Conservative leadership election would be a longer process and the final vote will likely go to the membership and it will be a longer process. I think Sajid Javid, Dominic Rabb, Boris Johnson, David Davis, Michael Gove and Jeremy Hunt will show interest in leadership. Jacob Rees Mogg would be firmly behind Boris Johnson, Mogg would likely have a cabinet position promised to him. The final two candidates would either Boris Johnson and Sajid Javid, Boris Johnson and Dominic Rabb, Boris Johnson and David Davis. I think Boris Johnson will become Prime Minister in late spring/ early summer 2019.

The likely key cabinet positions under Prime Minister Boris Johnson is as follows.

Prime Minister- Boris Johnson
Chancellor of the Exchequer- David Davis
Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs- Jacob Rees Mogg
Secretary of State for the Home Department- Andrea Leadsom
Secretary of State of Work and Pension- Esther McVey
Secretary of State for Transport- Ian Duncan Smith
Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs- Michael Gove
Secretary of State for International Trade- John Redwood

The most important predictions we must look at is the likely Brexit deal. Let’s make this clear there will not be a no deal Brexit, there is no majority in Parliament for it. EEA membership is out of the question as it requires for the UK to join the Schengen Area. EFTA is a more likely soft Brexit option as the UK is a founding member and it does not require the UK to join Schengen. However, I think the recent rhetoric from Theresa May suggests we will not get a deal like EFTA. My prediction with a more of a Canadian style deal with a new Customs Union or Chequers with a Customs Union to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland. At the time of writing this Theresa May has suggested we could remain in a Customs Union post-Brexit. This would be negotiated at the last minute in an attempt to prevent a No deal Brexit or a second referendum. This would most likely be just before Christmas like the divorce bill agreement in 2017. I see both the UK and the European Union both compromising on key issues at the last minute. I think the EU would be under a lot of pressure from Germany and the car industry to gain a meaningful deal.

Another issue we need to put to bed is the idea of a new general election. There has been endless speculation of another general election after the result of the 2017 general election. The idea of an early general election has resurfaced after the Chequers proposal and after the Chequers proposal was rejected by the European Union. It never occurred. The Conservative and DUP MP’s may have their differences on subjects such as Brexit however, they do not want to risk another general election and the placement of Jeremy Corbyn in 10 Downing Street. We can prove that this will happen from the track record in votes in parliament where the Government has managed to defeat the opposition in key votes in parliament even when there was an expectation for a major Conservative Rebellion. The Labour Party is going to aim to trigger a general election at all costs, I think this will fail. As the Peoples Vote motion mandates, Labour will also attempt to trigger a Peoples Vote, unless we get a No Deal, which I stated above is incredibly unlikely. The Conservatives will be able to push their Brexit deal through Parliament through the skin of its teeth. The next general election will likely occur in autumn 2019 after the summer recess and the end of the DUP deal and after a Conservative leadership election.

In this section, I will discuss the internal politics of the main Parties except for Conservatives as I discussed the Conservative leadership above. The SNP will likely have a change in leadership in 2019 due to an increase of dissatisfaction towards Nicola Sturgeon. The SNP are increasingly split between the prospect of an Indyref2 and divisions between pro-Alex Salmond and Sturgeon factions in the Party. There is also a growing split in the SNP on Brexit on the SNP’s policy towards it and on the Question of what will be the relationship between the EU and an independent Scotland? The popularity of the SNP will go into decline in favour of Labour and the Liberal Democrats. As well as Theresa May, Vince Cable will stand down in April 2019 as the leader of the Liberal Democrats, he has already announced he would resign after Brexit is either resolved or stopped. He would likely be replaced by Jo Swinson or Layla Moran. In term of popularity, I think the popularity of the Liberal Democrats will go into decline after Brexit in favour of Labour and the Conservatives. Jeremy Corbyn will strengthen his leadership in the Labour Party. Labour popularity will only increase in the next year after more Tory failures become highlighted in the media. In the 2017 general election, Labour did well directing the debate away from Brexit. Without the toxicity of Brexit Labour will excel in the polls. Discussion in Labour will be directed in new ideas such as abolishing the Monarchy and the idea of leaving NATO will come up. Open reselection will be passed in the 2019 Labour conference just prior to the 2019 election. The moderates in Labour will accept Labours new position like the left did with Blair many of them will give up in undermining Corbyn. Many of the deselected and dissatisfied moderates will leave Labour but this will not affect it electorally instead they will attract the moderate Conservative vote. A new centrist Party will emerge, backed by figures like Alistair Campbell and David Miliband, they will bring forth the idea of coming back into the European Union. I think this will draw key supporters from Labour, Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. I can see many of the social democrat types in the Liberal Democrats move to this new Party in the long term I can see an emergence of the old Liberal Party values within the Liberal Democrats. The new Party will be modelled on Emmanuel Macron’s La République En Marche. This new Party has a chance of winning a few cities however I can’t see it gaining more than 8% of the vote.

This section will briefly suggest what is likely to occur with our economy when we leave the European Union and what will be the policies that the Government would enact as a response.  There will be a temporary crash in the value of the Pound Sterling in early 2019. The Pound Sterling will increase in value as long as there is certainty, I will have a temporary surge in summer 2019 until the 2019 general election. The election of a Labour Government would lead to the Pound Sterling to crash again in value. Imports will become more expensive between the UK and the EU after the UK takes its seat on the World Trade Organisation we will aim to unilaterally lower tariffs on food imports to make up for the shortfall in imports from the European Union. I think the foreign investment will increase from the United States and China which both countries will take advantage with lower tariffs with Britain. However, this will not replace the investment losses due to Brexit in the short term. While we will be in a sort of a customs union, we would be allowed to make our own trade deals as long as we can prevent goods sourced from the outside of the EU from crossing the border. I think we will get a Trade Deal with the United States rather quickly and the terms of the deal would be a key debate in the 2019 general election.  I think the deal with the United States might include the proposed Space force and in agriculture, Boris Johnson is going to think big with his deal, after all, be seems ambitious with his numerous proposed bridges. Austerity measures will continue after Brexit in the public sector, however, I can see the Tories doing everything they can to keep the Post Brexit economy growing, there will be the largest increase in investment in since the 2008 crash. Much of this would be paid for a reduction of foreign aid.  As a result, we will have high inflation in 2019 perhaps the highest inflation we have seen since the 1970’s. I can also see the bank of England keeping interest as low as possible to encourage borrowing and to keep prices of housing and goods low. A decline in property prices post Brexit is also likely, due to the increase in house building and the decline in land banking from EU investors.  The Government is going to provide incentives and interest free loan schemes to a desperate attempt to get the Post Brexit economy going. This will be particularly impactful in London. Net Migration will go down, due to an increase of migration to outside the UK and a decrease in immigration to the UK. Immigration laws will not change in 2019 they will stay essentially the same than before to outside the EU. The service sector of the economy will go into decline for the first time since 2008 and there will be a slight increase in productivity amongst manufacturers that export outside the European Union.  I think this would be in new green and high-tech industries’ Conservative Government will encourage consumers to buy British Goods rather than imports from abroad and due to the increase in costs from imports we could see a small resurgence in British manufacturing. I can’t foresee major changes to Agriculture in this country we will leave the common agricultural policy and the Government will likely maintain much of the subsidies that the EU give to farmers. The fishing industry will do better outside the common fisheries policy, however, a situation similar to the Cod wars with Iceland with British and EU fishermen that continue to fish in British waters despite any agreement with the EU and the UK. Economic growth after Brexit will be extremely low, we will escape an economic recession by the skin of our teeth, perhaps at around 0.1% growth. However, I think things will quickly improve in following years. An increase in unemployment is inevitable in 2019 and will key part in a Political debate in 2019 due to the inevitable economic changes to this country as we leave the European Union.

That is the basic economic prediction in 2019, I would love to see what you think about this, we will see great economic difficulty however we will see the growth of new industries. There will be a massive disruption in customs as we will struggle to gain the administration to cope with exports and imports to the European Union, however, this disruption would he short term over the first half of 2019.

I can see a general election being called in September or October 2019, with the disruption of Brexit and a Conservative leadership contest I can’t see one being called in summer 2019. It would be a long a partisan campaign, however, it will result in a Labour Victory, Labour will have between 290 and 320 seats. It is possible that Labour will be forced into a supply and demand deal with the Liberal Democrats or the SNP in return for concessions most likely on voting reform and devolution. The election will be fought on key policies and there will be a backlash to Conservative failures with Brexit and young population that overwhelmingly supports Labour and a backlash against 8 years of austerity.

Saturday, 1 September 2018

The Bevanites and the Gaitskellites

 This subject is, of course, relevant to modern day politics within the Labour Party, especially at this current time when we have MP's such as Frank Field resigning from the Labour MP and the constant talk about a split in the Labour Party. I fundamentally believe that the current Labour Movement must learn from the mistakes from this time period if it is to succeed in the future and deliver the programme that the working classes of the United Kingdom desperately need.

What is happening now in the Labour Party is rather similar to what happened in the late 1950's. Instead of the Blairites and the Corbynites, we had the Gaitskellites on the right of the Party and the Bevanites on the left. The Bevanites were popular amongst Party activists. The Bevanites were extremely similar to Corbyn supporters today in many ways, they are were grossly split on issues such as Nuclear weapons, we can just examine the debate on Trident today in Labour to get the feeling on that. The Bevanites were followers and supporters of Nye Bevan and this faction included individuals such as Michael Foot and Tony Benn. Gaitskellites who were led by Hugh Gaitskell the were opposed to nationalisation and were in favour of a more of a market-orientated economy. They controlled the economic position of the Labour Party in the 1950's until Harold Wilson became the Labour Leader. Generally, the Labour grassroots was dominated by the Bevanites and the Parliamentary Labour Party was dominated by the Gaitskellites.

Image result for Nye Bevan
Nye Bevan was the  Minister for Health in the UK from 1945 to 1951 during the Attlee Government and it was Nye Bevan that created the NHS in 1948

The main split between them and the Bevanites was caused by Gaitskell's budget of 1951 introduced charges for certain prescriptions on the National Health Service. Parallels can be drawn with Tony Blair and PFI contracts that led to the slow privatisation of many services in the NHS that continue today in 2018. The Labour Party out of all Parties began this process that the Conservatives continued in a coalition backed by the Liberal Democrats between 2010 and 2015 and the Conservative Majority and Minority Governments since that coalition. The majority of the centrist faction of the Labour Party is morally bankrupt.

"The NHS will last as long as there are folk left with the faith to fight for it"- Nye Bevan

Labour in 1951 had a Majority Government of 5 seats what was fundamentally split Labour in 1951 called a general election and lost 20 seats despite winning 200,000 more votes the Conservatives acquired a majority. A failure of first past the post. This led to Winston Churchill's second tenure of Prime Minister until 1955 when he retired and was replaced with Sir Antony Eden.

 Two graphs of the vote share and the seat share of the major Parties in the 1951 general election. Sourced from Wikipedia.

Hugh Gaitskell became the Labour Leader in 1955 after the retirement of Clement Attlee after Labours defeat in the 1955 General Election. Sir Anthony Eden increased the majority of the Conservatives. Like in the 1980's these defeats led to Labour moving to the right.

Image result for Hugh Gaitskell
Hugh Gaitskell was the leader of the Labour Party and the leader of the opposition between 1955 and 1960. He was also the Chancellor of the Exchequer between 1950 and 1951 and was the Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer between 1951 and 1955.
In the context of Brexit in modern British Politics of 2018, It is also important to note that the Bevanites was the faction that was against joining the European Economic Community in 1973 and the Gaitskellites were in favour of joining the European Economic Community, though Gaitskell himself was rather sceptical of the European project. Generally, the right of Labour has always been more Pro European and the left was more sceptical of European integration. Though in modern years this has changed and Euroscepticism in the mainstream Politics and in the media is dominated by the right-wing factions in the Conservative Party. The divide between the Bevanites and the Gaitskellites on this issue was obvious if you consider that the likes of Tony Benn were the key Bevanites in Labour at the time. Even today it is the right of the Labour Party that opposes a Jeremy Corbyn that demands a #PeoplesVote and a reversal of Brexit. This is a very old divide in Labour, that still resonates today.

Hugh Gaitskell was just as successful as Attlee in the 1955 General Election in the 1959 General Election. The movement to the right for Labour failed. Labour lost 19 seats. However, much of this could be credited to economic stability in the late 1950's. The same can be really be said about the 2015 General Election. The economy continues to grow and Labour remained a Neo-Liberal Party at its core and favoured some austerity measures. Like before 2015 election, before the 1959 election Labour was actually polling above the Conservatives. This was because of the Suez Crisis of 1956 that led to the resignation of Sir Antony Eden in 1957. As a result, Harold Macmillan became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

A basic chart displaying the results of the 1959 General Election and the performance of the three major Parties. Sourced from Wikipedia.


Gaitskell just like Blair as the Labour Leader attempted to introduce many reforms to Labour but failed. One example of this is that he tried to change Labour charter's Clause IV that called for nationalisation. However, this was prevented by a strong Bevanite grassroots movement. Unfortunately, the Labour Party lacked a powerful Bevanite like movement in the 1990's. Blair like Gaitskell before him wanted to define what not only what British Socialism was but what the Labour Party was. This new Clause IV has remained in place since 1995 and even today it remains on the back of Labour membership cards. At the time Jeremy Corbyn opposed the proposed changes to Clause IV, however, at the time of writing this article Jeremy Corbyn has maintained the new Clause IV that was adopted by Tony Blair.

Below is the original Clause IV that was written by the member of the Fabian Society  Sidney Webb in 1917 and was adopted by the Labour Party in 1918. 

To secure for the workers by hand or by brain the full fruits of their industry and the most equitable distribution thereof that may be possible upon the basis of the common ownership of the means of production, distribution and exchange, and the best obtainable system of popular administration and control of each industry or service.
The current Clause IV below is the definition adopted by Tony Blair in 1995 the new definition abandons much of Labours Marxist roots for a more moderate constitution for the Labour Party. Still, the definition is broad and is fairly progressive. Note that it mentions "In the hands of the many, not the few", this was the basis of Jeremy Corbyn's campaign slogan in the 2017 General Election for the many and not the few. I suspect Gaitskell wanted a similar definition.

The Labour Party is a democratic socialist party. It believes that by the strength of our common endeavour we achieve more than we achieve alone, so as to create for each of us the means to realise our true potential and for all of us a community in which power, wealth and opportunity are in the hands of the many, not the few, where the rights we enjoy reflect the duties we owe, and where we live together, freely, in a spirit of solidarity, tolerance and respect.

  
Tony Benn in his Dairies in 1960 on the protental changes to Clause IV

The defeat of the Labour Party in the 1959 General Election vindicated the Bevanites within the Labour Party. In 1959 Nye Bevan was elected to the Deputy Leader of Labour where we remained until his death in 1960. He was replaced by the Gaitskellite George Brown. In 1963 Hugh Gaitskell died in office, he was replaced with Harold Wilson. Harold Wilson was a moderate member of the former Bevanite faction in the Labour Party but was a unifying figure who adopted some Gaitskellite polices. Harold Wilson was the Chancellor of the Exchequer between 1955 and 1961 he was seen as unifying between both factions many of the key Bevanites supported him. 


Grey-scale portrait of a middle-aged man with a round face and coiffed grey hair, wearing a dark suit


Harold Wilson ( Baron Wilson of Rievaulx). He served a term as the Prime Minister between 1964 and 1970 and another term between 1974 and 1976 

The 1964 General Election resulted in the first Labour Majority since 1951. However, Labour only achieved a 0.2% swing in the vote it was the split in the Conservative vote and the Liberal vote that largely propelled Labour into power. However, he was successful in getting the Labour Party into Government and reunifying both factions of the Labour Party. Many factional tensions in Labour did not resurface in the 1980's. Where many of the members of what was the Gaitskellite faction defected into the Social Democratic Party which later merged with the Liberal Party to form the Liberal Democrats in 1988.

Jeremy Corbyn did attempt to mimic this. Corbyn's first shadow cabinet included key Labour moderates such as Hillary Benn who was the Shadow Foreign Secretary under Jeremy Corbyn. He was sacked from the Shadow Cabinet in 2016 for organising a coup against Jeremy Corbyn that led to mass resignations from his moderate shadow cabinet members that a leadership election. While affairs were not as Partisan during the 1950's and the early 1960's is important to know these past issues that were extremely similar to the situation that Labour is in today. Despite all of that Corbyn still attempts to be forgiving to the moderate factions in Labour to the extent of compromising with them with policies such as on Trident. But these divisions remain extremely open. What Labour needs is a strong grassroots movement to counteract the moderate MP, who are more to the right than the old Gaitkellites.  Of course, Labour currently has that. However, it is less effective than the old Bevanite movement. It is not as radical as the old Bevanite movement and this new movement needs to do more to attract the old working class that. We need a mass revival of the old trade union movement behind a figure to the left of the Labour Party. We need to bring back the old ideas of mass solidarity between the working class. We also need to a way to get the influential  Liberal middle class, who have always been important to the Labour movement, particularly in the Fabian Society. However, Labour must be a working persons Party who puts the working class first. It is clear that we need to abandon but we must look to the past to learn from our past mistakes. Looking back to this period may give us insight to firstly unify the Labour Party and Secondly assist Labour in returning into its radical Socialist roots.